Catastrophe losses
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Fifteen events caused estimated losses of $306mn.
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The hurricane has led to a “surge” in insurance claims related to floods, according to the IBC.
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The ratings agency said companies focused on growing business in Gulf Coast states, however, would face a “key test” as claims materialised.
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A sub-$3bn industry insured loss event would be similar to estimates for hurricanes Beryl and Debby.
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Francine has been the eighth Category 2 or larger storm to make landfall in Louisiana since 2000.
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The storm is expected to weaken to a post-tropical cyclone later tonight.
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‘Life-threatening’ storm surge and hurricane-force winds expected for the state, according to the NHC.
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Francine is expected to make landfall in Louisiana tomorrow.
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The estimate from the Perils-owned company does not include any losses from Hurricane Debby.
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A hurricane watch is now in effect for the Louisiana coastline.
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The loss has increased by 1.4% since the company’s first assessment.
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Urban expansion, climate change and inflation are key drivers of losses.
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The CEA has $326.4mn towards risk transfer, 44% below budget.
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Returns were down on 2023, which benefited from favourable Ian loss development.
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Rising premium income is not keeping pace with the increased cost of claims.
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Flights cancelled as typhoon ramps up to Cat 4.
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Moody’s also predicts losses to the NFIP at less than $300mn.
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Several bonds suffered declines in value from February to July.
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Subsidiaries Core and Typtap have applied to participate in the November Citizens policies assumption.
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Severe thunderstorms, mainly in the US, accounted for 70% of insured losses globally.
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Its forecast for intense hurricanes is unchanged at six.
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The ‘life threatening’ hurricane has potential for “historic heavy rainfall” in the southeastern United States.
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The biggest losses were from wind damage after the storm’s Texas landfall.
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Relentless focus on annual outcomes provides a packaging that doesn’t fit the purpose.
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Industry losses of $800mn-$1.2bn are expected from Beryl's impact in Texas.
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Hurricane Beryl was a “harbinger of a hyperactive season,” CSU said.
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Beryl has been downgraded to a tropical storm but is still life-threatening, with news media reporting two deaths so far.
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Insured losses could be less than $1bn if current NHC forecasts are accurate.
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The parametric trigger on the World Bank deal specifies storm pressure of 955mb or lower but its initial reported landfall was at 975mb.
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Hurricane Beryl is expected to strengthen again after hitting the Yucatan Peninsula.
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The parametric structure would have paid out at slightly lower storm pressure.
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The storm destroyed housing in St Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada.
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The storm is predicted to hit the Caymans tonight or early Thursday.
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Recent modelling predicts a strong probability of direct landfall in Jamaica.
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Grenada and St Vincent were spared the full brunt of the storm.
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Cat bond spreads stabilised as maturities brought capital to deploy into the market, after an earlier spike.
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Torrential rain caused flash floods in the Gulf States in the middle of April.
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The firm is the sole provider to offer index services in the US.
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Reinsurers scaled back their coverage to non-peak events in 2023.
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The Italian hailstorm event in the summer 2023 saw estimated losses nearly triple.
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The firm now predicts six major hurricanes and 24 tropical storms.
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Forecasters have warned that a number of meteorological factors could make this year the most active on record.
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Most years since 2014 have seen at least one named storm before 1 June.
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The outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season.
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Overall economic losses hit $45bn in the first quarter of 2024.
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Various trends may work together to hold the cat markets up for longer than some had feared.
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Panellists at the Insurance Insider ILS conference say forecasts can push capital to “the edges” of the market.
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Researchers expect 15-20 named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin.
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Sums insured for European windstorm increased by 10.1% due to inflation.
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Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has updated its forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity, predicting a "hyper-active season" in 2024, with activity being around 70% above the 1991-2020 climate norm.
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Sabine Re marks Allied Trust’s entry to the market.
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Insured loss estimates are not yet available.
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Sources said preparations for a 2024 IPO were halted, but work could resume later this year.
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The Insurance Council of Australia has estimated A$743mn ($489.6mn) of insured losses from Tropical Cyclone Jasper and the Christmas and New Year storms.
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The broker’s report also hailed the best risk-adjusted margins for ILS investors in a decade.
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In total there were seven international events that exceeded $1bn in 2023.
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The bond, which increased in size by 25% to $125mn, priced at the lower end of the previously guided range.
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CFO Christoph Jurecka said losses for 2023 were in line with its expectations, but he added that the events producing the losses differed from those of years previous.
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Anticipations of a tug-of-war around a ‘flat to slightly up’ pricing renewal have indeed come to fruition.
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Next year will see North Atlantic hurricane activity about 30% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm, according to Tropical Storm Risk.
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The costliest disaster was the southeast Queensland and NSW flooding in February 2022.
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The P&C Re CEO discussed Swiss Re’s P&C appetite and nat cat exposure in the investor presentation.
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Up-to-date building codes could reduce the amount insurers pay in the Caribbean by 18%, according to the risk modeller.
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More than three-quarters of local exposure is ceded to highly rated reinsurers through excess of loss protection, according to the rating agency.
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The 2020 bond provides $125mn of parametric, per occurrence coverage.
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Top-layer cat risk is attracting additional capacity but reinsurers remain firm on attachment points, the broker said.
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Experts agreed that investment in understanding wildfire risk had come a long way in recent years.
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Lara's plan, backed Thursday by an executive order from California Governor Gavin Newsom, repackages elements of a proposed bill that collapsed earlier this month.
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Inver Re used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to model the impacts of global warming for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall in Florida.
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SCS accounted for nearly two-thirds of global first-half catastrophe losses.
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With winds speeds around 80mph, Lee is now a Category 1 hurricane but is still expected to be ‘a large and dangerous storm' by the time it reaches New England and Canada.
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Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend, the update noted.
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Data from the broker indicated that around 70% of global losses were driven by SCS, with events in the US causing $35bn of insured losses over H1.
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Reinsurance underwriting discipline will not subside even as reinsurers’ willingness to deploy capital increases, the broker said.
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Buyers expect rates to climb by 2.5% to 15%, continuing year-on-year hikes since 2017.
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The National Flood Insurance Programme could face a loss of around $500mn from the hurricane, according to the estimate.
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Karen Clark & Company said the majority of insured losses will incur from US wind and storm surge damage, apart from just under $5mn which was attributed to winds across the Caribbean.
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Hurricane Idalia is still live, but the storm’s track reassured market participants that it will be a relatively minor loss.
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Super Typhoon Saola has the potential to be one of the five largest typhoons to land in Guangdong in over 70 years, according to reports.
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Idalia might add further aggregate erosion to several cat bonds covering various perils over an annual risk period, it stated.
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The latest loss estimate is little changed from those in the reinsurance broker’s pre-landfall report Tuesday and aligns with estimates from Moody’s RMS pegging Idalia as a $6.3bn loss event.
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With Hurricane Idalia’s landfall underway loss estimates are uncertain, but sources noted that the storm’s trajectory shows it taking the best path to impact minimal insured values in Florida.
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The update projections for wind only show a 20% likelihood of losses approaching $11.7bn.
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More than 800,000 houses could be affected by the hurricane’s storm surge.
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If the storm steers clear of Tampa, reinsurers will be well placed for minimal losses, but a retention loss is a further blow for weak Floridians.
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Hurricane Idalia will reach Jacksonville but will have weakened by then
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For insurers, the Golden State is one of the last places they want to face disputes or lawsuits with consumers.
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The estimate is based on the impact to approximately 200 structures where RLI provided primarily homeowners’ insurance.
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Large carriers with geographic spread across the continental US will have the capital and reinsurance coverage to absorb losses related to the wildfires, according to AM Best.
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Homeowners’ and commercial insurance policies typically exclude floods, mudslides, debris flow and other similar disasters unless directly or indirectly caused by a recent wildfire.
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The Cat-4 storm is likely to weaken as it approaches the California coast.
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The development in reconstruction costs and contingent BI claims may put the ultimate sum beyond current estimates.
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Loss estimates from Aon, Gallagher Re, Swiss Re and Munich Re all point to a significant component of severe convective storm losses.
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Primary writers of homeowners and commercial property are exposed, while reinsurers could face wildfire losses.
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The modelling agent estimated that the total number of buildings within the fire perimeter is approximately 3,500.
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Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from the island, and nearly 14,000 Maui residents remain without power.
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Board members voted five to four in favor of rate increases but fell short of the two-thirds majority required.
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The first quarter of 2023 has already gone down as the costliest on record for the peril in the US.
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The loss tally comes in 39% above the average for the 21st century.
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The bulk of risks linked to a new investment grade cat bond it is working on relate to US private motor risks, with a fifth from commercial motor.
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The global natural catastrophe protection gap stood at $368bn, with protection gaps being largest in emerging markets.
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There has never been a named storm to form in the eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the season.
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Compelling rates are on offer for markets willing to write wildfire risk in the sunshine state.
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The cat bond will cover earthquakes in California, Utah, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona, as well as areas of Mexico and Pacific offshore locations.
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Most forecasters predict below-average activity in the region – but opposing weather phenomena mean uncertainty is higher than usual.
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The forecaster is predicting there could be as many as 14 hurricanes in the North Atlantic between June and November.
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast “near-normal" hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year.
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The Metrocat cover is heavily weighted towards Battery Park, which forms part of three districts in the cover's area A, alongside Sandy Hook and Rockaway Inlet.
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The issuance is split between $100mn-$120mn of Class A notes and $115mn Class B notes.
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The insurer is seeking $100mn in Class A notes and $50mn in Class B notes.
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Governments could encourage cat bond issuance by lowering costs, a policy paper said.
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Allstate disclosed a $211mn catastrophe loss in February based on nine separate events.
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The amount of limit purchased by the California Earthquake Authority has stepped down over the past couple of years.
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Higher rates and reserve releases connected to Hurricane Ian boosted results.
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An influx of Gabrielle claims comes on top of more than 21,000 IAG already received due to the floods that struck Auckland in January.
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Almost 40,000 are feared dead following the disaster, and more than 1 million people have been left homeless.
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The firm will exhaust its personal lines reinsurance coverage on the storm, pushing its personal lines carrier into insolvency, with commercial claims doubling.
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Reports said at least 641 people have died and thousands are injured, with damage to 1,500 buildings.
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The firm’s flood solution will be available to layer on top of existing parametric hurricane wind policies.
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The 17% uplift in its retention comes as reinsurers push for higher attachments.
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The non-profit initiative will broaden to include cyber and casualty after successful tests on property reinsurance placements.
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The Ontario and Quebec derecho was the most severe weather event for Canada in 2022, causing C$1bn worth of losses.
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The federal flood program expects ultimate losses to reach between $3.5bn and $5.3bn.
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Landslides, avalanche risks and submerged highways are just some of the extreme consequences of the storms.
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The outcome over the debate on narrowing cat reinsurance coverage will not be an all-or-nothing bet, with all perils deals with exclusions not a polar opposite of named perils coverage.
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The update to the October figure implies the ultimate number will comfortably breach the $50bn mark.
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A 6.4 magnitude earthquake started out near the coast at 05:30 ET.
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Citizens will be ineligible for the coverage, which will attract premiums ranging from rates-on-line of 50-65%.
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The state’s House of Representatives will vote this week on whether to put the call to the US President and US Congress.
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Hurricane Ian’s legacy will undoubtedly lead to some shake-ups in the ILS sector, with ongoing progression outside cat and ESG strategies likely to be a focus.
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