Catastrophe losses
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Fifteen events caused estimated losses of $306mn.
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The hurricane has led to a “surge” in insurance claims related to floods, according to the IBC.
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The ratings agency said companies focused on growing business in Gulf Coast states, however, would face a “key test” as claims materialised.
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A sub-$3bn industry insured loss event would be similar to estimates for hurricanes Beryl and Debby.
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Francine has been the eighth Category 2 or larger storm to make landfall in Louisiana since 2000.
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The storm is expected to weaken to a post-tropical cyclone later tonight.
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‘Life-threatening’ storm surge and hurricane-force winds expected for the state, according to the NHC.
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Francine is expected to make landfall in Louisiana tomorrow.
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The estimate from the Perils-owned company does not include any losses from Hurricane Debby.
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A hurricane watch is now in effect for the Louisiana coastline.
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The loss has increased by 1.4% since the company’s first assessment.
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Urban expansion, climate change and inflation are key drivers of losses.
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The CEA has $326.4mn towards risk transfer, 44% below budget.
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Returns were down on 2023, which benefited from favourable Ian loss development.
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Rising premium income is not keeping pace with the increased cost of claims.
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Flights cancelled as typhoon ramps up to Cat 4.
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Moody’s also predicts losses to the NFIP at less than $300mn.
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Several bonds suffered declines in value from February to July.
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Subsidiaries Core and Typtap have applied to participate in the November Citizens policies assumption.
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Severe thunderstorms, mainly in the US, accounted for 70% of insured losses globally.
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Its forecast for intense hurricanes is unchanged at six.
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The ‘life threatening’ hurricane has potential for “historic heavy rainfall” in the southeastern United States.
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The biggest losses were from wind damage after the storm’s Texas landfall.
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Relentless focus on annual outcomes provides a packaging that doesn’t fit the purpose.
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Industry losses of $800mn-$1.2bn are expected from Beryl's impact in Texas.
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Hurricane Beryl was a “harbinger of a hyperactive season,” CSU said.
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Beryl has been downgraded to a tropical storm but is still life-threatening, with news media reporting two deaths so far.
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Insured losses could be less than $1bn if current NHC forecasts are accurate.
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The parametric trigger on the World Bank deal specifies storm pressure of 955mb or lower but its initial reported landfall was at 975mb.
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Hurricane Beryl is expected to strengthen again after hitting the Yucatan Peninsula.
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The parametric structure would have paid out at slightly lower storm pressure.
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The storm destroyed housing in St Vincent and the Grenadines and Grenada.
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The storm is predicted to hit the Caymans tonight or early Thursday.
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Recent modelling predicts a strong probability of direct landfall in Jamaica.
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Grenada and St Vincent were spared the full brunt of the storm.
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Cat bond spreads stabilised as maturities brought capital to deploy into the market, after an earlier spike.
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Torrential rain caused flash floods in the Gulf States in the middle of April.
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The firm is the sole provider to offer index services in the US.
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Reinsurers scaled back their coverage to non-peak events in 2023.
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The Italian hailstorm event in the summer 2023 saw estimated losses nearly triple.
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The firm now predicts six major hurricanes and 24 tropical storms.
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Forecasters have warned that a number of meteorological factors could make this year the most active on record.
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Most years since 2014 have seen at least one named storm before 1 June.
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The outlook calls for an 85% chance of an above-normal season.
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Overall economic losses hit $45bn in the first quarter of 2024.
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Various trends may work together to hold the cat markets up for longer than some had feared.
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Panellists at the Insurance Insider ILS conference say forecasts can push capital to “the edges” of the market.
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Researchers expect 15-20 named storms to form in the Atlantic Basin.
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Sums insured for European windstorm increased by 10.1% due to inflation.
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Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) has updated its forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity, predicting a "hyper-active season" in 2024, with activity being around 70% above the 1991-2020 climate norm.
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Sabine Re marks Allied Trust’s entry to the market.
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Insured loss estimates are not yet available.
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Sources said preparations for a 2024 IPO were halted, but work could resume later this year.
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The Insurance Council of Australia has estimated A$743mn ($489.6mn) of insured losses from Tropical Cyclone Jasper and the Christmas and New Year storms.
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The broker’s report also hailed the best risk-adjusted margins for ILS investors in a decade.
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In total there were seven international events that exceeded $1bn in 2023.
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The bond, which increased in size by 25% to $125mn, priced at the lower end of the previously guided range.
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CFO Christoph Jurecka said losses for 2023 were in line with its expectations, but he added that the events producing the losses differed from those of years previous.
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Anticipations of a tug-of-war around a ‘flat to slightly up’ pricing renewal have indeed come to fruition.
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Next year will see North Atlantic hurricane activity about 30% above the 1991-2020 30-year norm, according to Tropical Storm Risk.
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The costliest disaster was the southeast Queensland and NSW flooding in February 2022.
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The P&C Re CEO discussed Swiss Re’s P&C appetite and nat cat exposure in the investor presentation.
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Up-to-date building codes could reduce the amount insurers pay in the Caribbean by 18%, according to the risk modeller.
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More than three-quarters of local exposure is ceded to highly rated reinsurers through excess of loss protection, according to the rating agency.
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The 2020 bond provides $125mn of parametric, per occurrence coverage.
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Top-layer cat risk is attracting additional capacity but reinsurers remain firm on attachment points, the broker said.
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Experts agreed that investment in understanding wildfire risk had come a long way in recent years.
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Lara's plan, backed Thursday by an executive order from California Governor Gavin Newsom, repackages elements of a proposed bill that collapsed earlier this month.
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Inver Re used data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to model the impacts of global warming for a Category 1 hurricane making landfall in Florida.
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SCS accounted for nearly two-thirds of global first-half catastrophe losses.
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With winds speeds around 80mph, Lee is now a Category 1 hurricane but is still expected to be ‘a large and dangerous storm' by the time it reaches New England and Canada.
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Slow weakening is forecast during the next few days, but Lee is likely to remain a large and dangerous hurricane into the weekend, the update noted.
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Data from the broker indicated that around 70% of global losses were driven by SCS, with events in the US causing $35bn of insured losses over H1.
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Reinsurance underwriting discipline will not subside even as reinsurers’ willingness to deploy capital increases, the broker said.
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Buyers expect rates to climb by 2.5% to 15%, continuing year-on-year hikes since 2017.
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The National Flood Insurance Programme could face a loss of around $500mn from the hurricane, according to the estimate.
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Karen Clark & Company said the majority of insured losses will incur from US wind and storm surge damage, apart from just under $5mn which was attributed to winds across the Caribbean.
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Hurricane Idalia is still live, but the storm’s track reassured market participants that it will be a relatively minor loss.
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Super Typhoon Saola has the potential to be one of the five largest typhoons to land in Guangdong in over 70 years, according to reports.
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Idalia might add further aggregate erosion to several cat bonds covering various perils over an annual risk period, it stated.
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The latest loss estimate is little changed from those in the reinsurance broker’s pre-landfall report Tuesday and aligns with estimates from Moody’s RMS pegging Idalia as a $6.3bn loss event.
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With Hurricane Idalia’s landfall underway loss estimates are uncertain, but sources noted that the storm’s trajectory shows it taking the best path to impact minimal insured values in Florida.
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The update projections for wind only show a 20% likelihood of losses approaching $11.7bn.
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More than 800,000 houses could be affected by the hurricane’s storm surge.
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If the storm steers clear of Tampa, reinsurers will be well placed for minimal losses, but a retention loss is a further blow for weak Floridians.
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Hurricane Idalia will reach Jacksonville but will have weakened by then
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For insurers, the Golden State is one of the last places they want to face disputes or lawsuits with consumers.
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The estimate is based on the impact to approximately 200 structures where RLI provided primarily homeowners’ insurance.
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Large carriers with geographic spread across the continental US will have the capital and reinsurance coverage to absorb losses related to the wildfires, according to AM Best.
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Homeowners’ and commercial insurance policies typically exclude floods, mudslides, debris flow and other similar disasters unless directly or indirectly caused by a recent wildfire.
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The Cat-4 storm is likely to weaken as it approaches the California coast.
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The development in reconstruction costs and contingent BI claims may put the ultimate sum beyond current estimates.
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Loss estimates from Aon, Gallagher Re, Swiss Re and Munich Re all point to a significant component of severe convective storm losses.
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Primary writers of homeowners and commercial property are exposed, while reinsurers could face wildfire losses.
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The modelling agent estimated that the total number of buildings within the fire perimeter is approximately 3,500.
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Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated from the island, and nearly 14,000 Maui residents remain without power.
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Board members voted five to four in favor of rate increases but fell short of the two-thirds majority required.
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The first quarter of 2023 has already gone down as the costliest on record for the peril in the US.
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The loss tally comes in 39% above the average for the 21st century.
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The bulk of risks linked to a new investment grade cat bond it is working on relate to US private motor risks, with a fifth from commercial motor.
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The global natural catastrophe protection gap stood at $368bn, with protection gaps being largest in emerging markets.
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There has never been a named storm to form in the eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the season.
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Compelling rates are on offer for markets willing to write wildfire risk in the sunshine state.
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The cat bond will cover earthquakes in California, Utah, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona, as well as areas of Mexico and Pacific offshore locations.
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Most forecasters predict below-average activity in the region – but opposing weather phenomena mean uncertainty is higher than usual.
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The forecaster is predicting there could be as many as 14 hurricanes in the North Atlantic between June and November.
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The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecast “near-normal" hurricane activity in the Atlantic this year.
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The Metrocat cover is heavily weighted towards Battery Park, which forms part of three districts in the cover's area A, alongside Sandy Hook and Rockaway Inlet.
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The issuance is split between $100mn-$120mn of Class A notes and $115mn Class B notes.
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The insurer is seeking $100mn in Class A notes and $50mn in Class B notes.
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Governments could encourage cat bond issuance by lowering costs, a policy paper said.
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Allstate disclosed a $211mn catastrophe loss in February based on nine separate events.
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The amount of limit purchased by the California Earthquake Authority has stepped down over the past couple of years.
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Higher rates and reserve releases connected to Hurricane Ian boosted results.
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An influx of Gabrielle claims comes on top of more than 21,000 IAG already received due to the floods that struck Auckland in January.
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Almost 40,000 are feared dead following the disaster, and more than 1 million people have been left homeless.
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The firm will exhaust its personal lines reinsurance coverage on the storm, pushing its personal lines carrier into insolvency, with commercial claims doubling.
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Reports said at least 641 people have died and thousands are injured, with damage to 1,500 buildings.
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The firm’s flood solution will be available to layer on top of existing parametric hurricane wind policies.
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The 17% uplift in its retention comes as reinsurers push for higher attachments.
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The non-profit initiative will broaden to include cyber and casualty after successful tests on property reinsurance placements.
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The Ontario and Quebec derecho was the most severe weather event for Canada in 2022, causing C$1bn worth of losses.
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The federal flood program expects ultimate losses to reach between $3.5bn and $5.3bn.
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Landslides, avalanche risks and submerged highways are just some of the extreme consequences of the storms.
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The outcome over the debate on narrowing cat reinsurance coverage will not be an all-or-nothing bet, with all perils deals with exclusions not a polar opposite of named perils coverage.
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The update to the October figure implies the ultimate number will comfortably breach the $50bn mark.
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A 6.4 magnitude earthquake started out near the coast at 05:30 ET.
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Citizens will be ineligible for the coverage, which will attract premiums ranging from rates-on-line of 50-65%.
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The state’s House of Representatives will vote this week on whether to put the call to the US President and US Congress.
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Hurricane Ian’s legacy will undoubtedly lead to some shake-ups in the ILS sector, with ongoing progression outside cat and ESG strategies likely to be a focus.
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The modelling firm noted a shift towards stronger hurricanes making landfall.
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The forecast included three intense hurricanes, six hurricanes and 13 tropical storms.
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The reinsurer emphasised the need for improved secondary peril models including predictive capabilities.
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Frontier Advisors said sentiment continues to be challenged by performance.
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Initial loss estimates for the last quarter show lower hits to equity than observed after hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria five years ago.
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Announcements and interviews at the UN conference have shed light on the tools emerging to help carriers decarbonise their underwriting portfolios.
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The new loss pick takes into account litigation and inflation costs, as well as claims activity to date.
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Most ILS firms are marking the Ian loss as a $50bn+ event, although there are exceptions.
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The company said it expects portfolio positions to reflect the updated figures soon.
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The bonds had been heavily marked down initially.
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According to the latest reports, around 110,000 customers have been left without power in Florida as Nicole makes its way across the state.
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Hurricane Ian losses at United Insurance Holdings (UPC) Insurance have nearly reached the top of its personal lines reinsurance tower, company executives said on its earnings call.
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The California-based carrier specialises in personal lines cat cover.
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The sector’s performance was better overall compared with September 2017.
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The carrier pushed London brokers for a reduction in the traditional 15% commission.
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FloodSmart Re bonds recovered by a few points in October after initial steep write-downs following Ian.
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Hannover Re said that it expected its total gross Ian losses to be slightly below EUR400mn.
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The insurer also emphasized that it realised more than $300mn from selling two MGA operations.
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The insurer takes a $1bn retention on US losses but could have made some reinsurance recoveries.
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For larger top-end ILW triggers, cedants may have to be pragmatic on rolling over capital.
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A special session in December and prohibition of assignments of benefits have been cited on the Florida campaign trail.
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The firm’s capital and risk solutions segment has been growing its reinsurance business this year.
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The reinsurer is pushing for higher retentions on property cat and lower ceding commissions on proportional casualty.
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The analysts said market pricing indicators suggested a hard market was going to set in, requiring increases of 20%-30%.
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The federal flood insurance program’s claims count has stepped up from 25,000 a fortnight ago.
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Major questions confront the industry after Hurricane Ian, but no matter the answers, certain outcomes are inevitable.
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The reinsurer said it will look to double rates and retentions and halve the amount of override on casualty quota shares.
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Buyers are more open than ever to different sources of capacity, but the timing of entry will not be on the industry’s terms.
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The state insurance body received reports of 375,293 claims as of 6 October.
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Hurricane Ian could present a challenge for ILS fundraising conversations this autumn if ILS firms do not find more financing solutions to manage trapped capital, according to panellists at Trading Risk New York 2022 last week.
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The cat bond market has a high level of exposure to Florida wind risk.
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The Swiss ILS specialist pointed to potential impacts on Floodsmart, Florida indemnity and index-linked bonds.
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RMS pushed the guidance for the Carolinas component of the Ian loss $120mn higher at the mean level up to $1.94bn, as it updated figures on Saturday in private figures to clients.
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Most of the losses will come from wind damage, while storm surge and inland flooding could account for up to $6.5bn in total.
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Flagship sidecar funds run by Stone Ridge and Amundi Pioneer lost 12% and 5% respectively last week.
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Amid a wide range of industry loss estimates, it is clear that ILS trapped capital will be a major issue for 2023 with back-of-the-envelope calculations suggesting at least double-digit billions held.
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KCC previously issued a $32.5bn number in a private client advisory based on Ian's Tuesday track.
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The modelling firm’s Thursday guidance based on prior hurricanes spanned $20bn-$88bn, compared to $12bn-$83bn the previous day.
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The market needs to improve on contract certainty to manage pricing cycles better, Rettino told Trading Risk New York 2022.
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The storm, currently 285 miles south of Charleston, is expected to make landfall as a hurricane on Friday.
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Georgia, Virginia and the Carolinas have declared a state of emergency as the storm moves north.
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Florida domestic insurers have around $2.5bn of on-risk cat bonds, with flood and other ILW based deals exposed to the storm.
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The state’s property carriers are closely watching the progress of Hurricane Ian.
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The storm has sped up considerably over the past six hours.
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The dangerous storm is now projected to make landfall between Sarasota and Port Charlotte, Florida.
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Cat 4 Hurricane Charley made landfall on Florida’s west coast in 2004, while Tarpon Springs (1921) was the last major storm to hit Tampa.
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The agency added that conditions adding to losses after Jebi were not present today.
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Models are now showing a hurricane coming ashore on the west coast of Florida near Fort Myers on Wednesday at 08:00 EDT with winds of 115 mph.
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The storm was downgraded from super typhoon status before making landfall on Sunday.
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The storm was downgraded from super typhoon status ahead of landfall but was still the equivalent of a significant hurricane.
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The storm is currently at Cat 4 strength but will weaken to Cat 3 as it approaches land.
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Danielle doesn’t appear to threaten land, but a second storm is likely forming and could threaten the Caribbean and Florida.
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Twia noted that the cancellations had come as Texas enters peak hurricane season.
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The parties will develop climate-conditioned wildfire event catalogs to support cat modelling.
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The reinsurer so far has made no claims on its retro protections for war-related impacts.
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Insured nat cat losses amounted to $35bn globally in H1, while manmade events triggered an additional $3bn, according to Swiss Re Insititute.
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Louisiana policyholders have filed 460,709 claims of all types, of which 65% were closed with payment.
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The McKinney and Oak fires are 0% and 67% contained, respectively.
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The government-backed disaster insurance facility offered discounts to its members that increased their tropical cyclone and earthquake coverage from last year.
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Initial loss estimates from convective storms and flash flooding place the economic impact in the hundreds of millions, although Aon warned losses may rise further.
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The effort to resolve claims has been hampered by constraints on labour and materials.
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US severe thunderstorms caused insured losses of $17bn during the first half.
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The first six months of the year also saw more billion-dollar loss events than average.
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More public-private partnerships should be a priority for governments and businesses.
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The current estimated insurance loss for the flooding is A$142mn.
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The impacts of the July floods are coming on top of significant flood losses in other parts of the country in March and April.
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Tropical storms gain strength when passing over the deep warm current.
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Its total risk transfer programme is sized at just over $9bn, down $400mn from year-end 2021.
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Flash flooding and landslides are expected.
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The March earthquake that struck Fukushima in Japan will cost $2.3bn.
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The new recruit has worked for Argo, Allianz and the European Space Agency.
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The weather system has arisen early in the season when some insurers are still yet to renew reinsurance.
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The university’s predictions increase to 20 named storms, including 10 hurricanes, for the season that started on Wednesday.
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The broker noted, however, that at this time last year the consensus was also for a slightly above average season which turned out to be the third most active season ever.
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The flooding in February and March now ranks among Australia’s five largest loss events.
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The state-funded body works to enhance disaster preparedness and financing.
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The storms tracked 1,000 km through densely populated regions of Quebec and Ontario.
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NOAA predicts there is a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
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Researchers forecast 18 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes between June and November 2022.
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The issuance is seeking named storm cover in Florida, Georgia and South Carolina.
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The 2022 reinsurance program will support cat losses exceeding $2.5bn, compared to $2bn in the corresponding period last year.
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Insurers have paid out $580mn to policyholders already.
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The Tampa-based carrier said cat losses nearly tripled, while other weather losses also rose from last year.
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Brokers - SectionThe company announced net retained catastrophe losses of $462mn.
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The issuance is Vantage Risk’s second in the cat bond market.
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Its prediction for an above average season is in line with the early outlook from Colorado State University (CSU) researchers.
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The team of researchers predict there will be 19 named storms, of which nine will be hurricanes.
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Continuing a trend of several years, secondary perils caused most insured losses at $81bn, or 73% of the total.
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The study says a more La Niña-like environment has driven the trend.
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Of that roughly $400mn to $820mn can be attributed to commercial and industrial properties, according to Verisk.
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This is down from the one-in-400-year benchmark used previously.
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The earthquake was 250 times less strong than the 2011 Tohoku disaster.
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Catastrophe reinsurers are already off to a messy start for the year and may have eroded a significant part of their year-to-date Q1 cat budgets as floods are still unfolding in Australia following recent European/UK windstorms.
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The first month of the year was quiet for natural catastrophe events.
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Net income was impacted by $4.4mn of reserve strengthening, net of reinsurance recoveries.
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The company is focusing on non-catastrophe offerings, such as P&C.
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The insurance trade body has called on governments to increase actions to mitigate risks.
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This is the fifth issuance from FEMA and carries a slightly higher multiple than the 2021 deal.
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The latest raise takes the satellite firm’s total financing to $304mn.
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The private equity fund has identified modelling and risk transfer as areas of focus.
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This is the first natural catastrophe loss under the World Bank series of ILS deals since 2019.
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The firm took $411mn of losses in December, up 940.5% year-on-year, but losses since April are still below the aggregate attachment of its latest Sanders Re deals.
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There is a lack of capacity for aggregate deals, and moves towards more named peril coverage.
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Pacific Gas and Electric Company told investors in November that it expects to recover $569mn from its insurers on a potential $1.15bn liability relating to the Dixie Fire in California.
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As the renewal is expected to spill over into 2022, the two-speed market will put pressure on retro-reliant carriers.
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Arwen knocked out power for around a million UK homes.
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While funding under a World Bank loan agreement is expected to flow, the 2019 cat bond protecting the nation was not expected to be at risk.
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Jefferies’ report shows that cat losses have been spread across a broader range of perils and regions this year.
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CyberCube forecast further capital market capacity will hit the cyber insurance market next year.
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Hurricane Ida was the main loss-making event, but once again secondary perils generated more than half of global losses, according to the latest Sigma report.
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Cat risk-takers are benefitting from some money leaving the sector, but is this disruption creating inefficiencies as well?
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The firm’s senior meteorologist noted activity was in line with expectations on major storms, if not all named storms.
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Nearly three months on, the event still seems heavily stacked towards residential claims.
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The fundraise will support collateralised reinsurance deals with the firm initially targeting Californian wildfires.
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On Louisiana Citizens, Commissioner Donelon said that the state-backed carrier does not need to acquire additional reinsurance to endure the impact of major losses from the Ida and Laura storms.
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Record rainfall has caused floods and landslides across the Canadian province of British Columbia, leading to at least one death and cutting all rail access to the country’s largest port in Vancouver, according to Reuters.
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Climate change is likely to have already driven up insured losses from hurricanes by 11%, and could raise annual windstorm losses by an additional 10-19%, according to the latest white paper from Karen Clark & Co (KCC).
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The carrier revised its cat bill following Ida and PG&E losses.
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The start-up reinsurer wrote $291.2mn in gross premium during the nine-month period.
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Sidecars have lost some of their lustre in recent years but are still generally seen as an efficient diversifier.
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Reserve releases more than doubled compared with Q3 2020.
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The modeller incorporated a 5% exceedance probability insured loss estimate to its report for the first time.
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The carrier’s catastrophe losses rose to $501mn from $397mn in Q3 last year
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The third wildfire cat bond for the California utility will be its largest to date
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Modelling firms say their data shows events like Hurricane Ida should be anything but a surprise.
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The lower-than-expected losses so far from Ida do not stack up against what is thought to be a $30bn+ cat event.
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This is followed by the severe convective storms in Europe in June which to date have generated losses of $5.1bn, and the Fukushima earthquake in Japan currently at $2.5bn of losses.
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The firm is also planning a windstorm version for Florida hurricanes.
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The cat modeller’s estimate follows a $950mn projection from Karen Clark and Company.
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Cat losses have highlighted the importance of modelling for secondary perils, but there is room for optimism in the industry, panellists said at Trading Risk’s London ILS event.
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The modeller’s estimate is higher than BMS’s earlier $700mn figure.
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Hot and dry weather conditions increase the challenges as Dixie and Caldor near full containment.
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The storm has dumped more than nine inches of rain on the city of Houston and risks further damage to Ida-hit properties.
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Total economic losses are thought to be around $900mn.
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The modelling firm’s wind and surge losses remain at $17bn-$25bn.
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In its renewal season update, the carrier said Bernd, Ida, Uri and the pandemic would force up pricing across lines and regions.
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European cedants are bracing for a ‘sizeable price correction’ after the scale of summer flooding took reinsurers by surprise.
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The updated loss estimates come on top of the $14bn to $19bn industry loss range the analytics firm provided last week.
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The cat risk modeller’s estimate is well ahead of KCC’s $18bn, as RMS said infrastructure in the states impacted by Ida have “never experienced such a strong hurricane wind intensity”.
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The catastrophe cover is more than twice the size of the 2020 deal.
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The fire has burned through more than 215,400 acres and spread across the counties of El Dorado and Amador.
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The modeller excluded precipitation-induced flood losses from its estimate, which comes in above the $18bn from KCC.
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Now crossing the Atlantic, Larry is expected to rapidly strengthen as it heads west.
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Casinos and ski resorts have shut down, and hotels are housing firefighters in usually buzzing holiday destinations near South Lake Tahoe, California.
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The storm has moved north across the US after making landfall in Louisiana at the weekend.
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The area of Laplace was the worst impacted on ICEYE’s list, with a total of 10,390 structures affected, 370 of which were in a high depth of water.
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The Caldor Fire, which is 18% contained, has been active for 17 days and in that time destroyed 675 structures and damaged 40.
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The estimate includes damage to residential, commercial and industrial property and vehicles.
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The further losses edge into the $20bn range, the more the loss will shift to the retro market, but high uncertainty remains.
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It has just one class of notes which will trigger on an indemnity, per occurrence basis against any wildfire in the state of California.
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Experts fear for survivors, who now face an intense heatwave and up to a month without electricity.
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Aggregate deals remain an exposure, but overall Ida should be a more readily digested loss than surprise disaster scenarios.
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Post-Covid demand surge is a particular focus and fear.
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Twelve Capital said that typically 70%-80% of aggregate cat bond deductibles remain after earlier loss events.
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Ida has weakened to a tropical storm after knocking out power to New Orleans and other coastal areas of Louisiana overnight.
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Pre-landfall livecat ILW interest was marked by a $15bn-$20bn split in buy/sell appetite.
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It is currently expected to make landfall on the Gulf Coast of Louisiana in the early hours of Monday morning.
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Platforms are the most at risk offshore energy asset, with 1,651 exposed to the current trajectory of Ida, while bulk carriers are the most exposed marine asset, with 100 currently exposed.
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Most of the damage occurred in Mexico as the country weathered an estimated $300mn of losses.
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The risk modeller said Henri’s weakening before landfall spared the northeast US from the damage originally forecast.
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Hurricane Henri is seen as a minimal event historically as the world braces for peak hurricane season, which begins on September 10.
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The hurricane made landfall near Tulum, registering a 986mb pressure reading.
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It is expected to hit Mexico’s east coast early on Thursday morning before moving on to the southwest Gulf early on Friday.
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The earthquake that hit the island’s southwest peninsula on 14 August is estimated to have caused $1.7bn of total losses, according to the firm’s Caribbean earthquake reference model.
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Overall figure was driven by a deep winter freeze, hailstorms and wildfires and marked the second highest first-half figure behind 2011.
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So far, damage costs caused by the California fire are thought to be below $1bn.
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Winds and high temperatures point to potential further growth of the blaze.
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NHC says the weather system is likely to threaten Florida by the weekend.
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The tropical Atlantic has not seen a single named storm from July 10 to August 9 for the third time since 1955, but experts warn that this does not mean hurricane season is slowing.
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The fire is the second largest in California’s history behind the August Complex Fire last year.
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Louisiana insurance department says claims for 2020 hurricanes rise 4% in second quarter; Hurricane Laura now 2nd most expensive.
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US landfalling activity is forecast to be slightly more above-norm than thought
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Executive board chairman Jean-Jacques Henchoz said earnings for H1 were up to pre-pandemic levels.
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The modeller said repairs to infrastructure could run into months.
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The German insurance association called the low-pressure system Bernd ‘one of the most devastating in recent history’.
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There are 7,500 properties impacted by a high depth of water according to the satellite operator and flood monitor for the insurance industry.
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The severe flooding has the potential to change the outcome of 2022 renewals after muted European cat rate increases this year.
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Citing this summer’s heat waves and the drought across the West, AM Best warns that insured wildfire loss totals may climb higher than 2020’s $1.2 bn.
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The storm was the earliest named E storm, forming nearly six weeks earlier than average.
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It was upgraded to a category one hurricane by the National Hurricane Centre last night before being downgraded in a public advisory at 2am (EDT).
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Tropical Storm Elsa picked up some strength as it passed over the Florida Keys Tuesday, raising the possibility it could become a hurricane again before slamming into the mainland.
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This is the second year the insurer has bought a fiscal-year aggregate.
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Elsa became the first hurricane of the season early on Friday as it slashed Barbados with winds gusting up to 86 mph.
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Austria and the Czech Republic are likely to record their most costly convective storms on record.
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Elsa was churning northwest at about 28 mph, making it a relatively fast-moving storm.
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It said the current threat posed by Tropical Storm Elsa was an example of storms being more likely to hit America’s Eastern Seaboard this season.
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RMS model update points to ‘fairly large’ rise in hurricane losses for US Northeast and Mid-AtlanticThe RMS V21 model update for North Atlantic hurricane incorporated data from recent major loss years but overall annual average losses have only risen up to 10% across the US.
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The storm will begin to weaken later today, before being downgraded from a hurricane to a tropical storm sometime on Tuesday.
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In the later stages of its liquidation, the manager’s listed fund has made an 8% uplift in May on fire releases.
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The flooding that took place in mid-March across Australia’s east coast states was labelled the worst in 60 years.
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The reinsurer’s analysis of 20 research groups’ predictions points to a busier season than usual.
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As new modelling tools emerge, we look at the benchmarks that ILS managers believe are appropriate for long-term stress tests and the shorter-term challenges.
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The storm system is expected to become Tropical Storm Claudette.
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The revelation came with the release of the institute's 2021 Resilience Index.
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The California Insurance Working Group suggested the policy to cover areas with high wildfire risk.
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Funding from the UK and Germany will support early action and the managing of disaster risks in less wealthy countries.
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Version 21.0 of the model will become available to clients on June 23.
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The insurer has a previous history of buying earthquake reinsurance cover from the ILS market.
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It is the Blackstone captive’s first foray into the cat bond market.
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Named storm predictions held stable from the agency’s April update at 17, up from an average of 14.
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The agency projects four major hurricanes and anticipates overall activity around a third higher than long-term norms.
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The official US forecaster said it did not expect activity to reach last year’s historic peaks.
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The deal will be fronted by Hannover Re but will provide coverage to the state backed carrier.
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SVP Jeremy Waite will head the operation, while continuing to lead the firm’s property treaty broking team for Australia and New Zealand.
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The catastrophe modeller made the estimate using a new climate change risk model.
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The reinsurer recovered 24% of its gross major losses from retro partners.
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Claims from hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta had been estimated at $7.7bn as at the end of last year.
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A series of devastating hailstorms has struck Texas and Oklahoma in what BMS meteorologist Andrew Siffert has described as a “billion-dollar hail loss event” for insurers.
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The insurer remained in underwriting profit despite the winter storm losses.
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Covid-19 losses remained stable as the insurer said rate rises should endure.
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Speaking at this publication’s 2021 ILS week, the managing partner of Integral ILS argued that primary catastrophe insurance was the best spot for ILS expansion beyond cat reinsurance.
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The insurer has benefited from recoveries from its captive after reworking its reinsurance treaty with the unit.
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The weather and nat cat analyst is expecting four major hurricanes this year.
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Analyst Philip Kett estimates US winter weather losses at $15.3bn.
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The data company describes the first quarter as benign.
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The claim from the TASB Risk Management Fund is one of the first pieces of loss information to come to light following the Texas deep freeze.
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The funding will be used to develop and improve risk models.
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The insurer will pay a high-single-digit rate on line.
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Widening the range of models used could allow 20% more insurers to survive, the study claims.
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Aon has said it expects the economic cost of physical damage and business interruption caused by the polar vortex-linked cold snap to “well exceed $10bn”, in an Impact Forecasting report released on Thursday.
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The reinsurer’s ceded major losses were down 2% year-on-year, despite its net retained cat losses spiking by two-thirds to EUR1.6bn.
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The overall $96mn year-on-year increase in ceded losses was mostly driven by higher storm activity, UPC said.
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Texas winter storm losses to spill over FedNat reinsurance retention.
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Markdowns have wiped more than $220mn off the value of $1.6bn of aggregate cat bonds benefitting major US insurers after the Texas Big Freeze.
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The carrier increased US-exposed reinsurance limit by EUR250mn but almost halved its group aggregate.
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The carrier is “very optimistic” on Japanese and US renewals this year, and outlined plans for growth in various lines and regions.
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The carrier said Texas claims are beginning to drop off with quota share and minor perils cover in place to help minimise its retention.
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Policyholders have filed some 730 claims after fires hit hills outside the western city.
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ARPC said the move improves the pool’s capital strength.
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ARPC said the move improves the pool’s capital strength.
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The veteran risk modeller says claims will be driven by the combination of anomalous temperatures that are well below average in a region unprepared for such a sudden freeze.
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The nature of the event means that more losses may take time to emerge.
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The carrier also expects to report $23.4mn of reserve strengthening in its results on 25 February.
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Last year cat losses were highly dispersed across a large number of events with no single loss above $10bn.
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The climate forecaster claims that the underlying assumption may be faulty.
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The last loss tally was 1.7% ahead of an August 2020 estimate for the storm, which exacerbated floods caused by EUR1.57bn event Ciara.
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The Floridian has also incurred $23mn of net catastrophe losses in Q4 before tax.
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Event definitions were also tightened at renewals, the broker said.
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The Australian carrier has also modestly increased its reserves for Covid-19 BI claims.
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A cluster of new launches demonstrate continued interest in an "independent aligned" model.
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Insurers already face A$40mn in claims, a level set to rise and potentially affect reinsurance.
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The combined ratio improved overall despite the marked increase in catastrophe claims.
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The executive had been president of Bermuda for Chubb’s reinsurance arm since 2011.
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The $296mn of reported cat losses were down 31% year on year.
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The carrier has set aside $13mn to pay coronavirus claims at its international unit.
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Of the largest insured losses from single events last year, the top eight occurred in the US.
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Losses stem from four events and amount to $1.5mn gross.
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Hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta made landfall in the state during a record-breaking hurricane season.
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Last year’s season was “unprecedented” in terms of frequency, but not in terms of severity.
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The utility did not disclose which insurers would receive payments.
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The broker’s figure is 40% higher than its annual average for the 21st century, with the bulk of losses coming from the US.
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A “pooling fund for disasters” would leverage insurance and reinsurance markets as a backstop.
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US hurricanes, storms, wildfires and civil unrest resulted in the carrier’s net cat loss burden doubling to $1.6bn.
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Storms tore through four states in January last year with hailstones up to 6cm in size.
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Evacuation orders were issued for 120 homes near San Mateo and Santa Cruz counties.
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The uplift in insured losses would be much lower due to underinsurance for storm surge and flooding damage.
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Cat losses will cost up to $80mn, down from last year’s $140mn, as the carrier indicated underlying results continued to improve in Q4.
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Citizens projected it would cede $94mn in storm losses to reinsurers but has cut this to $62mn.
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The start-up adds Angus Hampton as head of international casualty and reports a quota-share focus during the renewals.
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The ILS market expanded by $1bn in Q3 but still shrank by 4% over the first nine months of 2020 to $92bn.
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The carrier lifts its net catastrophe allowance by about 25% to $685mn as it reports more favourable renewal terms than it had expected.
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The spread rose 9% during the course of marketing.
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The year was marked by record North Atlantic storms, which put the loss tally more than 40% ahead of mild 2019 experience.
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