Hurricane
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The company also has $100mn for US hurricane events. -
The deals covered Euro wind and Italy quake, Florida hurricane and a retro bond.
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The agency forecasts up to five major hurricanes and 19 named storms.
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The revision is significantly lower than the $4.5bn October estimate.
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Premiums ceded to the ILS vehicle increased by 76% to $433mn.
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The largest individual net loss at EUR230mn was caused by Hurricane Milton.
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The bond was trading at around 12.3c on the dollar in the secondary market last month.
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This came as the market’s underwriting profit dipped 10% for 2024.
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The CEO expects to see a larger shift between condos and apartments in 2026 and 2027.
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HCI will now consist of two operating units – the other being its four underwriting entities.
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ILS is delivering “a growing contribution” to the group, according to CEO Cloutier.
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The firm reported record fee income of $128.2mn in 2024, up 26%.
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Comments came as universal reported a 4.2 CoR jump to 107.9% in Q4.
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Hurricane Milton accounted for 60% of the firm’s Q4 large loss tally.
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Several Florida start-ups are poised to begin writing business this year.
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Total combined losses for the agency’s Helene and Milton estimates stand at $31.8bn.
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AuM remains generally flat at UCITS funds over the weeks since LA fires started.
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Over 2024, four hurricanes added 13 points of cat-loss impact to the combined ratio.
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Capital inflows, notably into UCITS funds, and accumulated returns supported issuance of $17.2bn in 2024.
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Axis Capital’s fee income from strategic capital partners grew 39% to $85mn in the year to 31 December 2024, up from $61mn the year prior, the firm’s Q4 earnings release said.
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The Floridian also expects to report its “best earnings quarter” for Q4 2024.
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The industry loss number has increased threefold from an initial $5bn pick.
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Total economic losses were $368bn, 14% above the 21st century average.
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The carrier’s Milton loss came in below expectations, but its fire claims will be “material” in Q1.
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CEO Cerio highlighted changes that allowed the insurer of last resort to combine commercial, coastal and personal lines.
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The index’s performance in November was stronger than the prior year, although YTD returns are behind 2023.
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Hurricane Milton resulted in the largest insured loss of the year at $25bn.
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Cat bonds were a key supply-side driver at 1 January 2025.
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The UCITS cat bond segment has added 54% in AuM since Hurricane Ian.
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Casualty ILS made inroads, while hurricane hedging strategies came into focus.
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The company no longer has any exposure to reinsurance contracts.
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Overall, reinsurers accepted that rate cuts were still leaving them with strong margins.
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TSR anticipates that next year will see an ACE value of 129 compared with the 30-year norm of 122.
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The state reinsurer of last resort discussed options for 2025 reinsurance buying strategy.
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It estimated insured losses from nat cats on track to exceed $135bn in 2024.
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The carrier attributed the intensification of storms this season to climate change.
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Lloyd’s has taken around 6% of aggregate US hurricane losses in recent years, and disclosed estimated net losses from Helene and Milton of $1.8bn to $3.4bn.
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Losses from Hurricane Milton are expected to affect only select junior structures.
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The 2024 hurricane season stayed within predictions for high activity but lacked market-moving events.
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The Class B notes on the carrier’s debut deal attach at $500mn of losses.
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Euler ILS Partners and Tropical Storm Risk teamed up to produce an updated version of an earlier study.
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The loss figure has increased 200% from the initial number provided in October.
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Moderate impacts to ILS returns are anticipated from Hurricane Milton.
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The association’s Hurricane Beryl net loss stood at $455mn as of 30 September.
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The estimate includes $102mn from Milton and $114mn Helene development.
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It is targeting $25mn GWP this year and $50mn GWP in 2025.
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Helene losses were spread wider than initially suggested, in contrast to Milton claims.
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The ILS unit’s AuM was higher by $100mn compared to $1.9bn as of 30 June.
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Twia’s SCS losses in Q1-Q3 2024 have been more than double the budgeted amount.
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The reinsurer took $743mn of nat-cat losses in the quarter.
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The firm recorded a 13.3% nat cat impact to the P&C combined ratio.
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Fema's traditional reinsurance programme will attach at losses of $7bn and above.
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The model factors in the effects of climate change to date.
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A total of $2.1bn in Fema money has been approved for the state.
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The reinsurer confirmed its intention to reduce the K-Cession sidecar for 2025.
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The failure of a Jamaica bond to pay out following Hurricane Beryl damage has brought focus onto the deals.
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The Florida carrier reported a 103.5% combined ratio in Q3.
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In other property, Helene and Milton will assure rates remain attractive, he added.
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The carrier said it expected its Milton losses to fall below its EUR500mn ($537mn) Helene loss.
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The firm’s AuM in four key vehicles rose $526mn in Q3.
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The Floridian also announced the completion of its first-ever takeout from Florida Citizens.
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The combined ratio included 17 points of catastrophe losses in the third quarter.
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CEO Adrian Cox said Beazley’s recent $290mn ILW purchase was not driven by “capital flexibility in and of itself”.
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Latest pricing suggests secondary market traders are baking in further loss development.
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The firm will provide an update on 22 November to avoid holiday season.
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September was the strongest performing month since the index began in 2006.
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The low PCS number is presenting a challenge for ILW buyers and sellers.
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The commercial carrier also reported a Hurricane Milton pre-tax net loss forecast of $250mn-$300mn.
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The estimate implies a roughly $15bn homeowners’ industry loss from the hurricane.
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Andrade flagged expected 5% to 10% increases in the US and Europe.
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The figures imply first-layer reinsurance recoveries for Helene.
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The NFIP’s traditional reinsurance coverage kicks in at $7bn of losses.
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The loss tally is considerably lower than estimates issued by model vendors.
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Insured losses for 9M 2024 have hit $102bn, according to a report.
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Liberty Mutual expects $550mn in Helene losses versus Milton’s $250mn-$350mn.
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The carrier’s estimated pre-tax losses from Milton are $65mn to $110mn.
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The carrier is looking at a $600-$900mn hit from Debby, Helene, Milton.
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Pricing is expected to “stay neutral of soften” for January renewals.
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The Floridian anticipates Hurricanes Debby and Helene to incur losses of $3.8mn in Q3 2024.
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The firm still expects to deliver positive net income for Q3 2024.
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Assuming Munich Re takes roughly a 3% market share of hurricane losses suggests a ~$20bn industry loss for Helene.
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Managers expect Hurricane Milton losses to shore up pricing.
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Many in the ILS sector are bullish on Milton losses falling at the lower end of earnings impacts.
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Losses from the hurricane may not significantly impact on many funds’ annual returns.
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Earlier this week, RMS estimated insured losses for Helene and Milton at $35bn-$55bn.
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Florida domestics, aggregate retro and flood deals were all marked down.
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HCI is estimated to incur a net expense of $125mn for Milton in Q4 2024.
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Most of the insured loss was attributable to wind.
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Icosa said certain cat bonds could see more than 0.2 points of price movement.
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Twia filed for the rate hike in August after an actuarial analysis showed that rates were inadequate.
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The company incurred $563mn of total cat losses related to the storm.
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The bulls expect around $20bn-$30bn in Milton losses, with the bears anticipating $40bn-$50bn.
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The estimate includes private cover for residential, commercial and industrial property.
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RMS will issue its final loss estimates for Milton later this week.
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Plenum said wind damage from Milton could lead to “moderate” losses for its cat-bond funds.
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Hurricane Milton will show the ILS product behaving as investors expect it to.
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The company is monitoring the NFIP’s flood-exposed bonds.
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This is a far narrower drop than post Ian, when the index was lost 10%.
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Milton made landfall near Siesta Key yesterday, leaving 2.7 million homes without power.
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Losses to the NFIP-sponsored cat bonds remains a key area of uncertainty, the investment manager reported.
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A $40bn Milton loss should barely dent many ILS returns but will trap some capital.
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On Wednesday, the model had suggested a mean figure at $25.3bn.
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The hurricane is likely to prevent rate reductions in property cat in 2025.
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The event has spared (re)insurers the more extreme scenarios that were under discussion earlier this week.
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Milton made landfall south of Tampa Bay at Category 3 on Wednesday night.
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This is based on insured loss estimates of between $20bn and $60bn.
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The pre-landfall figures are not an official loss estimate from the modeller.
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The hurricane has destroyed hundreds of homes and left more than 2.7 million homes without power in Florida.
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Milton’s center is projected to make landfall near or just south of Tampa Bay.
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Integrity Re 2024-D and Lightning Re 2023-1A are two bonds that were marked down, although no trading has occurred.
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The NHC storm track predicts landfall below Sarasota, south of Tampa Bay.
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Hurricane Milton’s overall impact, based on the current pre-landfall scenario, could lead to “moderate losses” for Plenum’s funds.
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Collateralised reinsurance and retro are in the firing line.
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The government-backed scheme has greater take-up in areas in Milton’s path.
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Restrengthening to Category 5 is still possible, Siffert warns.
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Earlier this week, Moody’s RMS Event Response estimated the event would cost $8bn-$14bn.
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Prior forecasts indicated a more northward track towards Tampa Bay and St Petersburg.
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The storm is now predicted to make landfall south of Tampa Bay.
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The NHC is predicting storm surge, exacerbated by the tide, as high as 15 ft for Tampa Bay.
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The Mexican cat bond offers $125mn of protection against Atlantic named storms.
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A hurricane warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida.
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Most sources noted expectations of a $50bn+ event, but the range of outcomes is huge.
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Hurricane Milton strengthened from a tropical storm on Sunday to a Category 5 storm yesterday.
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Destructive storm surge is expected along Florida’s West Coast on Wednesday.
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Moody’s also predicts losses to the NFIP at potentially more than $2bn.
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The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 175mph.
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Milton is expected to move north of the Yucatan Peninsula today and cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
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Parts of the Yucatan peninsula are under a hurricane warning, though the storm is expected to remain offshore.
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The NFIP’s losses are estimated at $4.5bn-$6.5bn.
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Experts have raised concerns over significant rainfall, record-setting storm surge and lingering Hurricane Helene debris.
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The “exceptionally large and powerful” Category 4 storm made landfall in Florida last month.
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Rising sea levels and ocean warming were likely factors in Helene’s strength.
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The figure does not include NFIP losses.
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Most of the estimated insured losses will be retained by insurers.
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Key floods this year outside of the US include the Rio Grande do Sul.
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The biggest limitation to growth is supply, given ILS capital “reticence” after the 2016-22 years.
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The numbers will be refined further to arrive at an industry loss estimate.
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Moody’s described Hurricane Helene as “like Idalia but worse”.
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The storm made landfall as a major hurricane in Florida’s Big Bend region.
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The ratings agency expects insured losses of around $5bn for Helene.
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The manager is hopeful of closing all contracts by the end of 2024.
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Tallahassee avoided a major hit – but flood and storm-surge losses remain unknown.
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The NFIP has a higher take-up rate in Tampa Bay, which experienced record coastal storm surge.
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Helene is expected to become a post-tropical low later today.
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More than one million Floridians are without power after the storm hit.
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Additional strengthening is expected before Helene makes landfall in Florida tonight.
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Only three storms have impacted a larger area than Helene since 1998.
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An unexpected shift east towards Tampa could push losses beyond $10bn.
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TSR predicts Atlanta, Georgia, could face Cat 1 windspeeds as the storm moves further inland.
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The storm is expected to make landfall in Florida’s Big Bend coast on Thursday evening.
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Helene is currently a Category 1, but rapid strengthening is anticipated over the next day.
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The ILS manager expects “minimal, if any, losses” to bonds in its funds.
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In the best-case scenario, a Big Bend-landing storm could cost $3bn-$5bn, Howden Re said.
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A hurricane warning is in effect from the Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.
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A storm surge warning is in effect from Flamingo to Indian Pass.
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The storm could become a major hurricane by Thursday.
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The system is forming in the same area as 2022’s Hurricane Ian.
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Floir approved nearly 650,000 policies for takeout from Citizens for October and November.
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Moody’s also predicts losses to the NFIP at less than $200mn.
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The estimate is like others in the market, suggesting a relatively small loss from the event.
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The hurricane has led to a “surge” in insurance claims related to floods, according to the IBC.
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The ratings agency said companies focused on growing business in Gulf Coast states, however, would face a “key test” as claims materialised.
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A sub-$3bn industry insured loss event would be similar to estimates for hurricanes Beryl and Debby.
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Francine has been the eighth Category 2 or larger storm to make landfall in Louisiana since 2000.
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The sponsor has kept $25mn of principal in extension for any further loss development.
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The storm is expected to weaken to a post-tropical cyclone later tonight.
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Kin’s reinsurance structuring means the bond’s losses will be kept to a minimum.
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‘Life-threatening’ storm surge and hurricane-force winds expected for the state, according to the NHC.
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Francine is expected to make landfall in Louisiana tomorrow.
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The estimate from the Perils-owned company does not include any losses from Hurricane Debby.
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A hurricane watch is now in effect for the Louisiana coastline.
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Most of the ILS capital was attracted to the cat bond market.
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Cat bond funds continue to draw interest as private ILS more challenged.
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The broker said it expects strong ILS capital inflows to continue.
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Returns were down on 2023, which benefited from favourable Ian loss development.
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The storm made landfall on Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane.
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Ernesto’s maximum sustained winds have reached 100 mph.
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Flights cancelled as typhoon ramps up to Cat 4.
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Ernesto is expected to track past Bermuda on Saturday with hurricane conditions.
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Moody’s also predicts losses to the NFIP at less than $300mn.
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Both groups continue to call for a highly active season, however.
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Several bonds suffered declines in value from February to July.
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Subsidiaries Core and Typtap have applied to participate in the November Citizens policies assumption.
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The storm brought a lot of rain, but the Floridian doesn’t provide flood insurance.
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The loss is based on modelled outputs, as opposed to an initial loss estimate.
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The board of directors has voted for a 10% rate hike.
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Its forecast for intense hurricanes is unchanged at six.
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The NHC has said there is potential for “historic heavy rainfall” across southeast Georgia and South Carolina.
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The ‘life threatening’ hurricane has potential for “historic heavy rainfall” in the southeastern United States.
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The carrier purchased an additional $150mn of cover.
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The modeller said 3 million homes were without power at its peak.
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The figure is well above the historical average of $39bn for this century.
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The biggest losses were from wind damage after the storm’s Texas landfall.
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Relentless focus on annual outcomes provides a packaging that doesn’t fit the purpose.
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Uncertainty around the quantum remains due to policy deductible variation.
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The insured loss from Beryl in the US was pegged at $2.7bn.
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Industry losses of $800mn-$1.2bn are expected from Beryl's impact in Texas.
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Hurricane Beryl was a “harbinger of a hyperactive season,” CSU said.
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Secondary market activity and hedging would be likely if a Beryl-sized storm tracked toward the US.
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Houston mayor John Whitmire said: “We woke up this morning on the dirty side of a dirty hurricane.”
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Beryl has been downgraded to a tropical storm but is still life-threatening, with news media reporting two deaths so far.
