Hurricane
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The catastrophe modeller made the estimate using a new climate change risk model.
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The hurricane made landfall in Alabama on 16 September 2021 and swept through a number of southern states.
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The cedant was able to cut pricing on its occurrence layer by 25% from initial forecasts.
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Claims from hurricanes Laura, Delta and Zeta had been estimated at $7.7bn as at the end of last year.
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The carrier racks up losses from Uri and Filomena as well as deterioration on Laura and Sally.
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The February Deep Freeze has already pushed cedants to access reinsurance, adding fuel for rate rises later this year.
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The weather and nat cat analyst is expecting four major hurricanes this year.
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The manager says cedant demand is growing for larger transactions.
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The forecaster sees only a 25% chance that the enhanced activity will reach the “hyperactive” levels seen in 2020.
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The US forecasting agency updates the baseline once a decade.
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Reinsurers are still hoping to achieve double-digit rate increases, but brokers and cedants suggest this is unlikely against the context of strong reinsurance supply.
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Senator Jeff Brandes and local insurance law experts tell this publication that the state’s insurance market will be hugely vulnerable without reform.