Hurricane
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The insurer will pay a high-single-digit rate on line.
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Widening the range of models used could allow 20% more insurers to survive, the study claims.
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First Coast Re 2021-1 is the insurer’s fourth cat bond and set an early start to Florida renewals.
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The firm's insurers picked up roughly a third of the carrier's losses for the year.
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As Floridian insurers gear up for their mid-year reinsurance renewals, multiple issues are set to make it another challenging year for both sides.
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The modelling firm said its study aimed to help insurers “plan for the worst and hope for the best”.
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The company will split out its Florida reinsurance tower and will cede Uri losses to reinsurers after facing six cat events in the past year.
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The insurer is turning to the ILS market after a busy year for Florida deals in 2020.
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As some in the market believe the winter claims will remain notably below $20bn, there are multiple factors creating challenges in assessing the event.
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The carrier increased US-exposed reinsurance limit by EUR250mn but almost halved its group aggregate.
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The carrier said Texas claims are beginning to drop off with quota share and minor perils cover in place to help minimise its retention.
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The modeller said it is “likely” that the number of claims could exceed the high of Hurricane Harvey in 2017.