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S&P suggested that an “abrupt rethinking” was a more likely outcome than gradual pricing increases – but a third way is possible if ratings agencies set a glidepath to change.
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The lower-than-expected losses so far from Ida do not stack up against what is thought to be a $30bn+ cat event.
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Recently one of my colleagues argued that it was time for a “bonfire of PMLs”, as the past five years have shown that the industry has seriously underpriced the kind of $10bn-$20bn loss events that have been happening since Harvey, Irma and Maria landed in 2017.
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It is not so much the size of the hit, as the regularity of moderate cat events that is worrying risk-takers.
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There is no such thing as an average loss year, but investors will still be looking for benchmarks.
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It’s been a year of high turnover in general, but the ILS low-cost operating model can become a disadvantage in managing through such disruption.
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Across a wide range of different ILS strategies, there are a number of managers that have failed to gain critical mass in the past 5 years.
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CPI surged to 4.2% in April, levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis.
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Initially, negotiations are likely to be led by risk takers but there could be a case to model a future role for service providers.
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The Florida reinsurance renewals ran more smoothly, with lower overall rate increases than initially expected.
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The latest generation of ILS-backed rated fronting platforms is looking more “ILS-y” due to their ownership structures.
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Collaboration could address many of the issues vexing the ILS market and help to even out the pace of its recovery.