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The reinsurance segment is heading for a hard market regardless of whether the loss is $40bn or $60bn, but the swing will exacerbate trapital and influence the reload, Convergence conference panellists suggested.

The reinsurer said it will look to double rates and retentions and halve the amount of override on casualty quota shares.

The company estimates its overall gross loss to be approximately $1bn, below its $3bn overall reinsurance tower.

Fidelis and MS Reinsurance are among the ceding companies that have support from Ajit Jain’s unit.

The Florida carrier suggested that Ian will not exhaust the state’s reinsurance Cat Fund.

The carrier has under 3% market share in Florida homeowners’ business in 2021.

The broker’s global head of catastrophe management Dan Dick said that a realistic view on Ian’s loss suggests it would remain an earnings event for (re)insurers.

Amid a wide range of industry loss estimates, it is clear that ILS trapped capital will be a major issue for 2023 with back-of-the-envelope calculations suggesting at least double-digit billions held.

The insurer-of-last-resort does not expect the hurricane to attach its reinsurance at this stage.

Storm surge may be felt in Tampa even if Ian does not land in the city.

Research by sister title Inside P&C shows the top three homeowners carrier exposures by county for forecast highest impact areas.

A landfall at Category 3 or 4 along the west coast of Florida later this week would be one of the more damaging scenarios for Ian.