Claims and losses

The carrier also estimated its European flooding burden will be $520mn.

While the cat bond market has avoided losses this year, any move to sell up cat bonds could act as a counterweight on spreads in the run-up to January renewals.

This is followed by the severe convective storms in Europe in June which to date have generated losses of $5.1bn, and the Fukushima earthquake in Japan currently at $2.5bn of losses.

The firm is also planning a windstorm version for Florida hurricanes.

California wildfire loss notifications relating to 2017 and 2018 fell.

Meanwhile Typhoon Mindulle is gaining strength as it approaches Japan, and could cause flooding in southern Shikoku and Honshu.

GWP rose by 17% to $177bn for Aon’s peer group of reinsurers, while their average combined ratio stood at 94.0% – down from 104.4% for the prior-year period.

The loss aggregator said the change indicated initial over-reserving in the wake of the flooding.

The ratings agency said that cat models were not taking into account the full impact of climate change.

The cat modeller’s estimate follows a $950mn projection from Karen Clark and Company.

Cat losses have highlighted the importance of modelling for secondary perils, but there is room for optimism in the industry, panellists said at Trading Risk’s London ILS event.

The midpoint for the estimate is around $97mn above the company’s pre-tax cat load, with $75mn resulting from Hurricane Ida.