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Hurricane warnings are in place for Guantanamo, Holguin and Las Tunas. -
Economic losses from the Cat 5 storm could run 30%-250% of the country’s GDP.
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Central pressure of 900mb or below would trigger a full loss of the $150mn deal.
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A US landfall is not expected, but the storm could hit the Bahamas by Friday.
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Pricing on Friday implied a potential $45mn loss to the bond, before the storm outlook deteriorated.
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The storm could bring flooding to Jamaica, Cuba and Haiti.
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Nine-month insured losses still exceeded $100bn due to California wildfires.
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The reinsurer stressed it “did not shy” from cat business in 2023.
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Jonathan Rinderknecht was arrested Tuesday on destruction of property charges.
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Winds have strengthened to 80 mph, and the hurricane is expected to intensify further over the next 48 hours.
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The tropical cyclone is expected to be named Imelda.
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Equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane, Ragasa is the world's strongest storm this year.
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Despite the formation of Gabrielle, there is "a very high probability" of a below-average season.
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The major storm is set to move on to mainland China later in the week.
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The economic loss from the event was around EUR7.6bn.
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The measures also seek to encourage greater wildfire mitigation efforts.
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Losses were primarily driven by personal property lines.
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The sponsor extended two notes issued in 2022.
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The volume of property cat aggregates placed grew 50% in 2025.
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The data modeling firm said losses previously averaged $132bn annually.
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The ratings agency warned negative PYD on US casualty will likely continue.
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After the LA wildfires in Q1, carriers got some relief in Q2 ahead of wind season.
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The firm has also updated the loss-calculation engines of existing Jeannie tools.
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The group claims the White House is undermining disaster preparedness.
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The US has been lucky over recent decades to avoid a $100bn insured hurricane event.
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The estimate covers property and vehicle claims.
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The firm booked net losses from the LA wildfires of EUR615.1mn in the first half.
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ILS investors have fought shy of multi-peril aggs due to low confidence in SCS modelling.
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Both organisations still predict an above-average hurricane season.
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The sidecar took $19mn of cat losses relating to the California wildfires.
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The forecast has increased since the early July update due to several additional factors.
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California wildfires account for $40bn of the insured loss tally in H1.
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The model becomes the second in the state to get approval to affect ratemaking applications.
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The firm attributed a 9% drop in reinsurance NWP partly to higher cession rates.
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Millions are evacuating after one of the strongest earthquakes in modern history.
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Mercury’s recovery from the guaranteed percentage of losses is $47mn.
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Insured losses produced the second highest first-half tally since records began in 1980.
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The figure updates an April estimate of EUR696mn.
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The firm reported a net pre-tax cat loss of $414mn from January’s LA wildfires.
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The losses were below May’s $777mn, but almost 3x higher than for June 2024.
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The suit claims billions of dollars are being illegally withheld.
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The US accounted for 92% of all global insured losses for the period.
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US events accounted for more than 90% of global insured losses.
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State legislation has led to major strides in rate adequacy.
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We discuss progress in collateral management with our Outstanding Contributor winner.
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Category 4 and 5 storms could become more common and hit further north.
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Despite predicting fewer hurricanes, the numbers are still above average.
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The weather-modelling agency is predicting a below-normal season.
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This comes in at the lower end of the initial spread guidance of 725-775 bps.
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The investment consultancy said yields increased in Q2 by less than could have been expected.
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Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred has been the costliest event, with A$1.36bn in losses.
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The company said the reduction was due to years of steady improvements.
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Allstate attributed the bulk of its losses to three major wind and hail events.
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PCS's loss estimate for the March Missouri SCS pushed the bond beyond its exhaustion point.
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The Californian insurer had a private deal, Randolph Re, that provided pure wildfire protection.
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In April, the loss modeller pegged losses at A$2.57bn.
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The loss has decreased by 0.3% since the company’s third assessment.
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The number has expanded by around 40% from an earlier update, sources said.
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The latest update brings the agency’s combined estimate for Milton and Helene to $32.4bn.
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The executive has 15 years of experience in meteorology and cat analytics.
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HCI secured three towers with $3.5bn in XoL coverage.
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The $2.59bn renewal is up 45% from last year.
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Up to nine million acres of US land are considered likely to burn.
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Last week, TSR updated its forecast and is now predicting above-average storm activity.
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Most of the losses are attributable to a supercell storm in Texas.
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The company also has $100mn for US hurricane events.
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The Floridian also secured $352mn of multi-year coverage extending to 2027.
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Florida’s top regulator says he’s eyeing eventual tweaks to the state’s cat fund, too.
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The deals covered Euro wind and Italy quake, Florida hurricane and a retro bond.
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Almost 50,000 people have been forced to evacuate.
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TSR previously predicted activity slightly below the 1995-2024 average.
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SCS can no longer be considered a "secondary" peril for the US insurance market, Steve Bowen said.
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The agency forecasts up to five major hurricanes and 19 named storms.
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Two large storms hit the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions on 14-17 May and 18-20 May.
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Tornadoes have killed at least 32 people in three states.
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The targeted uplift comes after Mercury ceded nearly $1.3bn of wildfire losses to reinsurers in Q1.
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The revision is significantly lower than the $4.5bn October estimate.
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Wildfire losses from fronting and ILS activities were EUR438mn.
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Tropical Cyclone Alfred and Queensland flooding brought thousands of claims.
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Ark's combined ratio included 25 points of catastrophe losses in Q1.
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CEO Thierry Léger expects overall P&C pricing to be “stable” through 2025.
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The insurer has not decided whether to sell its Eaton subrogation rights.
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The CEO said private ILS funds can generate additional returns of 10%-20%.
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Richard Pennay also addressed the dip in cyber ILS activity.
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Private ILS would benefit from extension spreads to manage investor concerns, the CEO argued.
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All 29 funds tracked by the index returned a positive performance.
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Growing economic and population exposures are driving potentially larger insured losses.
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Six weeks after the storm, Perils released its first industry-loss estimate at EUR619mn.
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January’s California wildfires meant third-party investors suffered a loss of $195.3mn.
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The storm made landfall in Queensland, Australia at the beginning of March.
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SCS losses were also above average in Q1 due to “lingering” La Niña conditions.
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The carrier surpassed the retention on its annual aggregate reinsurance cover for the year to March 31.
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Insured losses were the second highest on record for the first quarter.
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The industry loss data provider also increased its estimate for Hurricane Helene to $15.3bn.
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KCC is part of the CDI’s review into creating a public wildfire cat model for insurers.
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The sponsor is estimating a loss of ~$300mn in relation to one of last month’s US tornado events.
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Despite wildfires, reinsurers are “well positioned to maintain strong profitability in 2025”.
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The prediction comes after a highly active hurricane season in 2024.
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Colorado State University is predicting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes.
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Losses stemmed from ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred and North Queensland flooding.
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The carrier has received 12,300 claims as of 28 March.
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The event has caused widespread damage in Bangkok, Thailand.
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Cat losses last month were lighter than historical trends, but all eyes are on Q1 figures.
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The March 13-16 storms would mark the first billion-dollar US SCS event of the year.
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MAP’s Christopher Smelt said impact on nationwide programmes will cause risk aversion.
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Both syndicates also reported a deterioration in their combined ratios.
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Most of the industry losses occurred in Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland.
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Sources warned some property XoL books are already running 50% loss ratios.
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The cat bond manager warned of excess downside risk owing to an accumulation of losses.
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The insurance industry has experienced mounting losses from severe convective storms.
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Premiums ceded to the ILS vehicle increased by 76% to $433mn.
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Commissioner Lara also proposed a $500mn cash infusion from parent State Farm.
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Island appetite remains stable, but early 2025 loss activity has injected fresh uncertainty.
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The largest individual net loss at EUR230mn was caused by Hurricane Milton.
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The bond was trading at around 12.3c on the dollar in the secondary market last month.
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“We do not have the luxury of time,” he said during the Bermuda Risk Summit.
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Both carriers have extensive reinsurance coverage.
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This came as the market’s underwriting profit dipped 10% for 2024.
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Almost 300,000 people have been left without power from the storm.
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This loss number covers the property line of business.
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There is the potential for cat bond H1 issuance to be a record breaking six months.
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As of 14 February, the company received 405 claims.
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The London D&F market will shoulder most of the losses.
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The reinsurer pegged the market loss at $40bn.
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The carrier pegged its LA wildfire losses at EUR140mn.
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Dispersion of returns was high, with the range 0.87% to -3.71%.
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The programme structure was expanded, but it is unclear what percentage was placed.
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The cost of reinstatement was included in $170mn wildfire net loss figure.
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Climate change and other loss impacts were not adequately incorporated, sources said.
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The CEO expects to see a larger shift between condos and apartments in 2026 and 2027.
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HCI will now consist of two operating units – the other being its four underwriting entities.
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ILS is delivering “a growing contribution” to the group, according to CEO Cloutier.
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State Farm General has asked California regulators for an emergency rate increase.
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There was a slight increase in DaVinci and Fontana from 31 December 2024 to 1 January 2025.
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The firm reported record fee income of $128.2mn in 2024, up 26%.
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Comments came as universal reported a 4.2 CoR jump to 107.9% in Q4.
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Hurricane Milton accounted for 60% of the firm’s Q4 large loss tally.
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The carrier expects the market loss to land at $35bn-40bn.
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The carrier has paid $1.75bn on around 9,500 claims filed from the wildfires.
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The conglomerate reported after-tax cat losses of $1.2bn related to Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024.
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Several Florida start-ups are poised to begin writing business this year.
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The carrier estimated January cat losses of $1.08bn, or $849mn after-tax, including the fires.
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Wildfire loss ‘serves as a strong reminder not to unwind hard-fought for rates and terms’, the executive said.
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Total combined losses for the agency’s Helene and Milton estimates stand at $31.8bn.
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The carrier said 72% of those losses occurred in personal property.
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A higher loss quantum will put a greater burden on retro programmes.
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The estimate is net of its per-occurrence reinsurance program and gross of tax.
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Insurers have paid $6.9bn in Southern California wildfire claims in the first four weeks of recovery.
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The loss aggregator has classified the fires as two separate events for reinsurance purposes.
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Wildfire is rarely singled out as an exposure that can shift portfolio outcomes.
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The fall marks this the first time in 20 years the index has been negative in January.
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More than 33,000 claims had been filed as of 5 February.
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The firm will match segregated accounts of portfolios to investor mandates.
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The carrier is “extremely well capitalised” to achieve its strategic ambitions.
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The insurer disclosed the estimates as it seeks emergency rate hikes from regulators.
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The company will ‘aggressively pursue subrogation’ for the Eaton Fire.
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The LA fires ‘demonstrate the magnitude of tail events not well captured in modelling’.
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Ultimate losses from the Palisades, Eaton and Hurst fires are estimated at $4bn.
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The LA-based firm estimated gross cat losses in the range of $1.6bn-$2bn.
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The role at PCS included acting as primary touchpoint for ILS.
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The carrier’s reinsurance premiums ceded rose by 32% to $3.4bn in 2024.
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CFP has a $900mn reinsurance attachment point and is still receiving claims daily.
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The storm is likely to be one of the costliest weather events in Canadian history.
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AuM remains generally flat at UCITS funds over the weeks since LA fires started.
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FY24 disclosures show shifting fortunes at reinsurer ILS platforms.
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Over 2024, four hurricanes added 13 points of cat-loss impact to the combined ratio.
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But cat bonds are experiencing negative secondary market price movement.
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The carrier is likely to exceed its Q1 large-loss budget due to the California wildfires.
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The carrier disclosed it will book $1.1bn in net losses from the California fires.
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The group ceded 55% more premium to Nephila over the year at $1.3bn.
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The carrier has been reducing its presence in the state since 2007.
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The carrier has recognised two separate losses for the Palisades and Eaton fires.
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The company says the recent wildfires will be the costliest in its history.
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Programs did not offer adequate risk-adjusted return.
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Capital inflows, notably into UCITS funds, and accumulated returns supported issuance of $17.2bn in 2024.
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The Bermudian’s wildfire loss estimate was based on an industry loss range of $35bn-$45bn.
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A negative January return will be unprecedented for ILS industry.
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The company’s reinsurance business also has some exposure, the executive said.
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The index delivered a total return of 1.29% for the month of December.
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The carrier has around $2.5bn-$4bn of reinsurance cover specifically for California risk.
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Axis Capital’s fee income from strategic capital partners grew 39% to $85mn in the year to 31 December 2024, up from $61mn the year prior, the firm’s Q4 earnings release said.
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The bond went on watch after Mercury said it would exceed its $150mn retention.
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The Floridian also expects to report its “best earnings quarter” for Q4 2024.
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Models will need to steepen the curve in the tail to reflect severe event frequency.
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Non-proportional business accounted for 34% of its total.
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The figure does not include specie or auto losses.
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Secondary pricing on the carrier’s Topanga Re bond partly recovered following the guidance.
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The carrier also has a $500mn excess $2.4bn aggregate protection.
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The company received over 10,100 home and auto claims as of January 27.
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Compared with its initial figure, CatIQ’s latest estimate has increased by 40%.
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Secondary market pricing indicated anticipated California wildfire losses.
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Guy Carpenter said personal lines exposure would account for 85% of the aggregate loss.
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Fitch said 1Q wildfire losses could add 6% to 10% to Mercury’s CoR.
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The industry loss number has increased threefold from an initial $5bn pick.
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The total includes fire and smoke damage plus living expenses for evacuees.
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The fire started Wednesday morning and is currently 0% contained.
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Total economic losses were $368bn, 14% above the 21st century average.
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The carrier’s Milton loss came in below expectations, but its fire claims will be “material” in Q1.
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Losses from the larger fire will amount to $20bn-$25bn, the modeller said.
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Most carriers paid more in homeowners’ claims than they collected in premiums.
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Severe convective storms accounted for 41% of last year’s insured loss load.
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Two 2021 worldwide aggregate ILW notes are also among the markdowns.
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The carrier can claim separately for the Palisades and Eaton fires if necessary.
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The carrier has received more than 3,600 claims from LA wildfires.
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There are many unknown factors including insurance gaps, high-value property and damage to critical infrastructure.
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The estimate has reduced slightly since the modeler’s last update in October.
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The fund returned 15.69% in calendar year 2024.
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The anticipated portion ceded to reinsurance may reach the mid-to-high single-digit billions, it added.
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This will be the most expensive fire in the state’s history, it said.
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A $30bn industry loss would use one-third of Big Four’s 2025 cat budgets.
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ILS managers expect the losses to have some impact on future cat bond spreads.
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The reinsurance attaches at $7bn, unchanged for the past two years.
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Sources say the Fair Plan is under-reserved, leading to the possibility of member assessment.
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The carrier is the largest writer of homeowners’ multi-peril in the state.
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CEO Cerio highlighted changes that allowed the insurer of last resort to combine commercial, coastal and personal lines.
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As fires still rage, many fear early $10bn-$20bn estimates were too optimistic.
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The 2024 loss figure exceeded that of the previous record of C$6.2bn in 2016.
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The Palisades fire is estimated at $9bn-$12bn, while Eaton is $6bn-$8bn.
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The index’s performance in November was stronger than the prior year, although YTD returns are behind 2023.
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Utilities have faced major liabilities for their involvement in starting wildfires.
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Investigators are homing in on the likely causes of the incidents.
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The number of structures damaged may put the event on par with the fires of 2017 and 2018.
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The company’s stock price has plummeted in the wake of the LA wildfires.
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Sources say 2025 could be as costly for wildfires as the $20bn-loss years of 2017-18.
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Total economic and insured losses are “virtually certain” to reach into the billions.
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AM Best said it expects insured losses from the California wildfires to be “significant”.
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This could see it surpass the 2017 Camp Fire, which cost around $12.2bn.
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Plenum said impact is marginal because wildfire contributes only marginally to the risk of bonds.
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Moody’s also expects losses in the billions of dollars.
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Six wildfires are now burning in SoCal, with the Palisades fire being the largest.
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Six fires now cover more than 27,000 acres across Southern California.
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Hurricane Milton resulted in the largest insured loss of the year at $25bn.
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The fast-moving blazes have prompted evacuations across the city.
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More than 4,000 acres are burning as thousands evacuate.
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The new agreement provides $40mn of aggregate limit excess of zero.
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The multi-day weather outbreak caused widespread damage from Texas to the Carolinas.
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The largest non-US event in 2024 was the catastrophic flooding in Valencia.
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Cat bonds were a key supply-side driver at 1 January 2025.
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The UCITS cat bond segment has added 54% in AuM since Hurricane Ian.
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Homeowners’ insurance rates have spiked almost 60% since 2018.
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Casualty ILS made inroads, while hurricane hedging strategies came into focus.
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The storms struck Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.
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Most of the industry losses occurred in Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland.
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The company no longer has any exposure to reinsurance contracts.
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The regulations are part of a state effort to expand wildfire coverage.
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Overall, reinsurers accepted that rate cuts were still leaving them with strong margins.
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The reinsurer said investors were interested in expanding after benefiting from good results.
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The bond will provide multi-peril coverage in the US and District of Columbia.
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TSR anticipates that next year will see an ACE value of 129 compared with the 30-year norm of 122.
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The state reinsurer of last resort discussed options for 2025 reinsurance buying strategy.
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Former ILS investors who left the space have looked again and re-allocated.
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Losses are concentrated in the states of Baden-Wuerttemberg and Bavaria.
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It estimated insured losses from nat cats on track to exceed $135bn in 2024.
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The carrier attributed the intensification of storms this season to climate change.
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Lloyd’s has taken around 6% of aggregate US hurricane losses in recent years, and disclosed estimated net losses from Helene and Milton of $1.8bn to $3.4bn.
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Losses from Hurricane Milton are expected to affect only select junior structures.
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The 2024 hurricane season stayed within predictions for high activity but lacked market-moving events.
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The Class B notes on the carrier’s debut deal attach at $500mn of losses.
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Euler ILS Partners and Tropical Storm Risk teamed up to produce an updated version of an earlier study.
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The bond is split into three tranches of notes.
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The loss figure has increased 200% from the initial number provided in October.
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Moderate impacts to ILS returns are anticipated from Hurricane Milton.
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The association’s Hurricane Beryl net loss stood at $455mn as of 30 September.
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The estimate includes $102mn from Milton and $114mn Helene development.
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It is targeting $25mn GWP this year and $50mn GWP in 2025.
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The floods add to an already historic loss tally for Canada in 2024.
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Helene losses were spread wider than initially suggested, in contrast to Milton claims.
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The ILS unit’s AuM was higher by $100mn compared to $1.9bn as of 30 June.
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Twia’s SCS losses in Q1-Q3 2024 have been more than double the budgeted amount.
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The reinsurer took $743mn of nat-cat losses in the quarter.
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The firm recorded a 13.3% nat cat impact to the P&C combined ratio.
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Fema's traditional reinsurance programme will attach at losses of $7bn and above.
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The model factors in the effects of climate change to date.
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A total of $2.1bn in Fema money has been approved for the state.
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The reinsurer confirmed its intention to reduce the K-Cession sidecar for 2025.
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The failure of a Jamaica bond to pay out following Hurricane Beryl damage has brought focus onto the deals.
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The Florida carrier reported a 103.5% combined ratio in Q3.
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In other property, Helene and Milton will assure rates remain attractive, he added.
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The carrier said it expected its Milton losses to fall below its EUR500mn ($537mn) Helene loss.
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Only around EUR70mn-EUR140mn will fall to private insurers.
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The firm’s AuM in four key vehicles rose $526mn in Q3.
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The firm sees a "robust" pipeline of potential investors ahead of the renewals.
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The Floridian also announced the completion of its first-ever takeout from Florida Citizens.
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Ceded losses grew by 69.2% in Q3 from the prior year quarter to $44mn.
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The combined ratio included 17 points of catastrophe losses in the third quarter.
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CEO Adrian Cox said Beazley’s recent $290mn ILW purchase was not driven by “capital flexibility in and of itself”.
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Most of the losses derive from France.
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Latest pricing suggests secondary market traders are baking in further loss development.
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The firm will provide an update on 22 November to avoid holiday season.
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September was the strongest performing month since the index began in 2006.
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The low PCS number is presenting a challenge for ILW buyers and sellers.
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The firm is also integrating changes to its process to allow it to cover wider ground.
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The commercial carrier also reported a Hurricane Milton pre-tax net loss forecast of $250mn-$300mn.
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The estimate implies a roughly $15bn homeowners’ industry loss from the hurricane.
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Andrade flagged expected 5% to 10% increases in the US and Europe.
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The figures imply first-layer reinsurance recoveries for Helene.
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The company’s reinsurance premiums ceded fell by 58% to $149mn.
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The NFIP’s traditional reinsurance coverage kicks in at $7bn of losses.
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The loss tally is considerably lower than estimates issued by model vendors.
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Insured losses for 9M 2024 have hit $102bn, according to a report.
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Liberty Mutual expects $550mn in Helene losses versus Milton’s $250mn-$350mn.
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The carrier’s estimated pre-tax losses from Milton are $65mn to $110mn.
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The cyclone pool received $479mn in GWP in the year to 30 June 2024.
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The carrier is looking at a $600-$900mn hit from Debby, Helene, Milton.
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Pricing is expected to “stay neutral of soften” for January renewals.
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The Floridian anticipates Hurricanes Debby and Helene to incur losses of $3.8mn in Q3 2024.
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The firm still expects to deliver positive net income for Q3 2024.
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Assuming Munich Re takes roughly a 3% market share of hurricane losses suggests a ~$20bn industry loss for Helene.
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As a result of mostly flooding, £495mn ($644mn) of losses occurred in the UK.
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Managers expect Hurricane Milton losses to shore up pricing.
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Many in the ILS sector are bullish on Milton losses falling at the lower end of earnings impacts.
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Losses from the hurricane may not significantly impact on many funds’ annual returns.
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Earlier this week, RMS estimated insured losses for Helene and Milton at $35bn-$55bn.
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Florida domestics, aggregate retro and flood deals were all marked down.
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The catastrophe loss estimate for September totalled $889mn, pre-tax.
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HCI is estimated to incur a net expense of $125mn for Milton in Q4 2024.
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Most of the insured loss was attributable to wind.
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Icosa said certain cat bonds could see more than 0.2 points of price movement.
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Twia filed for the rate hike in August after an actuarial analysis showed that rates were inadequate.
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The company incurred $563mn of total cat losses related to the storm.
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The bulls expect around $20bn-$30bn in Milton losses, with the bears anticipating $40bn-$50bn.
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The estimate includes private cover for residential, commercial and industrial property.
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RMS will issue its final loss estimates for Milton later this week.
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Plenum said wind damage from Milton could lead to “moderate” losses for its cat-bond funds.
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Hurricane Milton will show the ILS product behaving as investors expect it to.
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The company is monitoring the NFIP’s flood-exposed bonds.
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This is a far narrower drop than post Ian, when the index was lost 10%.
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A client presentation from the broker put total insured losses at $25bn-$40bn, leaving the Citizens and the National Flood Insurance Programs clear of reinsurance impacts.
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Milton made landfall near Siesta Key yesterday, leaving 2.7 million homes without power.
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Losses to the NFIP-sponsored cat bonds remains a key area of uncertainty, the investment manager reported.
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A $40bn Milton loss should barely dent many ILS returns but will trap some capital.
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On Wednesday, the model had suggested a mean figure at $25.3bn.
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The hurricane is likely to prevent rate reductions in property cat in 2025.
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The event has spared (re)insurers the more extreme scenarios that were under discussion earlier this week.
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Milton made landfall south of Tampa Bay at Category 3 on Wednesday night.
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This is based on insured loss estimates of between $20bn and $60bn.
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The pre-landfall figures are not an official loss estimate from the modeller.
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The hurricane has destroyed hundreds of homes and left more than 2.7 million homes without power in Florida.
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Milton’s center is projected to make landfall near or just south of Tampa Bay.
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Integrity Re 2024-D and Lightning Re 2023-1A are two bonds that were marked down, although no trading has occurred.
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The NHC storm track predicts landfall below Sarasota, south of Tampa Bay.
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Hurricane Milton’s overall impact, based on the current pre-landfall scenario, could lead to “moderate losses” for Plenum’s funds.
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Collateralised reinsurance and retro are in the firing line.
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The government-backed scheme has greater take-up in areas in Milton’s path.
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Restrengthening to Category 5 is still possible, Siffert warns.
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Earlier this week, Moody’s RMS Event Response estimated the event would cost $8bn-$14bn.
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Prior forecasts indicated a more northward track towards Tampa Bay and St Petersburg.
