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The figure – which is not a loss estimate – would be consistent with early views of a sub-$10bn insured loss. -
With Hurricane Idalia’s landfall underway loss estimates are uncertain, but sources noted that the storm’s trajectory shows it taking the best path to impact minimal insured values in Florida.
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The storm will weaken further, but remain a hurricane as it passes through Georgia and the Carolinas.
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The update projections for wind only show a 20% likelihood of losses approaching $11.7bn.
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More than 800,000 houses could be affected by the hurricane’s storm surge.
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Parts of Tampa, as well as Georgia and the Carolinas, now face dangerous conditions.
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Idalia is likely to be a hurricane while moving across southern Georgia and possibly when it reaches the coast of Georgia, according to the latest NHC update.
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The forecaster also added a tropical storm watch for parts of North Carolina.
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If the storm steers clear of Tampa, reinsurers will be well placed for minimal losses, but a retention loss is a further blow for weak Floridians.
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Hurricane Idalia will reach Jacksonville but will have weakened by then
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The storm is set to become an “extremely dangerous major hurricane” by landfall on Wednesday.
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Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Wednesday.
