Claims and losses

The lower-than-expected losses so far from Ida do not stack up against what is thought to be a $30bn+ cat event.

The carrier also estimated its European flooding burden will be $520mn.

This is followed by the severe convective storms in Europe in June which to date have generated losses of $5.1bn, and the Fukushima earthquake in Japan currently at $2.5bn of losses.

The firm is also planning a windstorm version for Florida hurricanes.

The loss aggregator said the change indicated initial over-reserving in the wake of the flooding.

The cat modeller’s estimate follows a $950mn projection from Karen Clark and Company.

Cat losses have highlighted the importance of modelling for secondary perils, but there is room for optimism in the industry, panellists said at Trading Risk’s London ILS event.

The midpoint for the estimate is around $97mn above the company’s pre-tax cat load, with $75mn resulting from Hurricane Ida.

Surpassing the $30bn threshold will trigger more occurrence covers, as another painful year looms for aggregate writers.

Provinzial confirmed its claims had risen above EUR1bn and it now estimates they could reach EUR1.5bn.

The modeller’s estimate is higher than BMS’s earlier $700mn figure.

Hot and dry weather conditions increase the challenges as Dixie and Caldor near full containment.