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Widening the range of models used could allow 20% more insurers to survive, the study claims.
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Aon has said it expects the economic cost of physical damage and business interruption caused by the polar vortex-linked cold snap to “well exceed $10bn”, in an Impact Forecasting report released on Thursday.
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The reinsurer’s ceded major losses were down 2% year-on-year, despite its net retained cat losses spiking by two-thirds to EUR1.6bn.
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The firm's insurers picked up roughly a third of the carrier's losses for the year.
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The overall $96mn year-on-year increase in ceded losses was mostly driven by higher storm activity, UPC said.
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Trapped capital subdued the firm's overall fund return to a 1.6% gain, as primary insurance gains outweighed reinsurance losses.
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Texas winter storm losses to spill over FedNat reinsurance retention.
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Markdowns have wiped more than $220mn off the value of $1.6bn of aggregate cat bonds benefitting major US insurers after the Texas Big Freeze.
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The modelling agency said it is still monitoring how factors such as demand surge and mould damage may impact claims.
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As some in the market believe the winter claims will remain notably below $20bn, there are multiple factors creating challenges in assessing the event.
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RSA has reported £259mn ($361mn) in Covid-19 losses for 2020, as well as a reduction in premium for the year of £166mn due to the pandemic.
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The carrier increased US-exposed reinsurance limit by EUR250mn but almost halved its group aggregate.