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The new estimate sits in the middle of the range, following previous figures given by modellers
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The NHC emphasised uncertainty over the intensity outlook for the storm's Gulf Coast landfall.
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The storm is currently expected to make landfall as a Cat 2 hurricane.
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The storm hit near Puerto Morelos, between the larger resorts of Cancun and Playa del Carmen.
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The NZ Super Fund is reviewing its portfolio in line with a revised climate strategy.
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The storm is equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane.
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Carrier has a cat event retention of $10mn for all perils under its reinsurance programme.
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Transparency and offering users the ability to adjust models would help advance the industry, panellists said.
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States of emergency have been declared as far east at Florida.
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Violent waves and a storm surge of as much as 9-13 feet above normal tide levels will likely cause damage across the coastline.
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The storm is expected to strike the Cancun as a Category 4 storm later tonight.
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The storm is forecast to reach Mexico on Wednesday and hurricane warnings are in effect.