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The flooding is now the costliest nat cat event ever in Australia, with insured losses higher than Cyclone Tracy and Sydney Hailstorm in 1999. -
KCC has added a loading for litigation costs to the storm loss estimate for the first time.
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The Swiss ILS specialist pointed to potential impacts on Floodsmart, Florida indemnity and index-linked bonds.
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The broker’s global head of catastrophe management Dan Dick said that a realistic view on Ian’s loss suggests it would remain an earnings event for (re)insurers.
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RMS pushed the guidance for the Carolinas component of the Ian loss $120mn higher at the mean level up to $1.94bn, as it updated figures on Saturday in private figures to clients.
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Constraints in rebuilding supplies and contractors, inflation and post-event litigation will be key loss amplification drivers.
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Most of the losses will come from wind damage, while storm surge and inland flooding could account for up to $6.5bn in total.
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Flagship sidecar funds run by Stone Ridge and Amundi Pioneer lost 12% and 5% respectively last week.
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The storm, which made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane, has now been downgraded to a post-tropical storm.
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Amid a wide range of industry loss estimates, it is clear that ILS trapped capital will be a major issue for 2023 with back-of-the-envelope calculations suggesting at least double-digit billions held.
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On average, 4.5 cat events per year generate a $1bn industry-wide loss – there have been six so far in 2022.
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The outlook for AmFam's affiliate NGM Insurance's $70mn 7.25% 20-year surplus notes has also been revised to negative from stable.
