Wildfire
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The insurer is expected to make significant recoveries from its aggregate cat bonds for the second year running. -
Heavy rain is forecast to drench the areas affected by the wildfires Northern California on Tuesday evening local time.
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The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection said the blaze was so far spread across 150,000 acres and was 65 percent contained.
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The risk modeller expects $7.5bn-$10bn of insured losses from the Camp Fire and $1.5bn-$3bn from the Woolsey Fire.
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Insured loss estimates for the storm have now pushed into the $10bn-$15bn range, from $5bn-$10bn estimates last week.
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Morgan Stanley suggested the energy company’s liabilities could surpass $3bn, well above the trigger on the Cal Phoenix Re cat bond.
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The Camp Fire and Woolsey Fire have now destroyed 10,000 and 504 buildings respectively.
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The uptick is the result of more cat bond holders looking to sell, sources said.
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Chubb and Travelers also face losses of around $400mn each should total insured losses hit $10bn, the analyst said.
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CoreLogic’s analysis puts nearly 50,000 homes at “high or extreme” risk from the two largest fires in California.
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The Camp Fire in Northern California has destroyed nearly 9,000 structures and still threatens 15,500 more.
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The acreage burned so far this year is already almost double the amount last year, the ratings agency said.
